When a new Conservative leader is elected in a few weeks, and Britain has a new Prime Minister, he or she will be faced with the same impossible situation as Theresa May. There are only around 60-70 MPs in Parliament that support a no-deal (full) Brexit, which means that only 1/10th of the House of Commons believes in Brexit. And then on top of that, you have the House of Lords, which is overwhelmingly against Brexit and has strangled the process of leaving the EU for the last 3 years. So if Boris Johnson, for example, becomes the new Prime Minister, his promise to implement a no-deal Brexit if he can’t get a better deal is impossible, because he doesn’t have the numbers to get such an option through parliament.
Even more crucial still, large sections of his parliamentary party are trying to block his leadership bid by fielding as many candidates as possible to split the vote. So if he did become Prime Minister with the support of Conservative Party grassroots members, a large number of Remainer Conservative MPs could gang up with opposition parties like Labour and the Liberal Democrats, and pass a no-confidence vote against him in the House of Commons. This would effectively leave him as powerless as Theresa May, and thus would send us back to the same position that we are currently in. On top of that, Boris’s genuine support for Brexit is questionable, with many believing he only supported leaving the EU to further his chances of leading the Conservative Party. And of course, Boris might not win the leadership election, and a Remainer taking the reins of power would just continue the same postponement of Brexit that we are experiencing now.
Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party would take seats from the Conservative Party in a general election, and the Liberal Democrats would take seats from the Labour Party. On top of that, the likelihood of Remainer Conservative MPs forming a coalition with Brexit Party MPs is zero. This, in turn, would mean that Labour, the Liberal Democrats, the SNP and possibly Remainer Conservative MPs would form a coalition of their own – which would no doubt lead to a 2nd referendum.
Brexiteers rightly fear a 2nd referendum for two good reasons. Firstly, unlike in the preparation for the 1st referendum, where the Remainer Parliament was so confident of victory that they didn’t allow EU citizens to vote (apart from citizens of the RoI, Cyprus and Malta), the current Remainer Parliament would not make this strategic error again. Secondly, the Remainer Parliament previously blocked the right of 16 and 17-year-olds to vote in the 1st referendum. Again, there is no way Remainers will repeat this mistake. You can count on the fact that they will do everything in their power to gain whatever pre-determined advantage they can.
And then there is the question of Nigel Farage himself. His new Brexit Party, which has crushed UKIP’s vote and prospects, is likely to become nothing more than a new centre-right party rather than a true right-wing alternative. It’s easy to jump to conspiracy theories, and I try to avoid them unless there is clear evidence. However, I cannot help but notice that every time a true right-wing party emerges, Farage comes from nowhere and crushes it. He did this in the late 2000s and early 2010s when as leader of UKIP he defeated and routed the BNP. And this year, when UKIP was re-emerging as an anti-Islam and anti-mass immigration party, Farage creates the Brexit Party and obliterates it at the European elections. And despite all of this, Farage has not achieved Brexit at all. The only thing he has achieved is the destruction of any true right-wing party willing to tackle difficult issues like Islam or non-white immigration.
While Salvini, Orban and Le Pen correctly prioritise stopping non-white immigration over leaving the European Union, Farage is leading British right-wing voters down the opposite path. And sadly, most of them can’t seem to accept or realise the reality of this. Overall though, the one thing you can guarantee in Britain at the moment is that the flood gates are still open, the third world is still pouring in, and nobody is doing anything about it.